More than a month after the stunning GOP gubernatorial victories in Virginia and New Jersey, virtually all polls show that, far from a fluke, these elections were the harbingers of a powerful trend that some predict will result in an electoral earthquake in favor of the GOP in the midterm elections of 2010. While much could happen between now and Nov. 2010, there is no doubt that as of now most indicators point to a republican victory on a par with GOP’s 1994 landslide. The dismal economic picture and record unemployment clearly are a key variable in this trend and a significant improvement in the coming months could certainly ameliorate the democrats’ prospects. Nonetheless, a number of the contributing factors for their growing unpopularity appear to be a public reaction to the leftwing radicalism of Pres. Obama and the democratic party, which is of a systemic nature and unlikely to change any time soon. It is this radicalism in pushing big government, quasi-socialist policies in health care, energy, environmentalism etc. that have caused significant majorities to oppose the administration on most of these issues and led to a sizable decline in the popular approval of the Adminstration’s policies and the president himself. Most important, from an electoral viewpoint, is the dramatic shift of independents’ sentiments from a two to one pro-democrat preference in the 2008 presidential race to exactly the opposite today. In the latest (Dec. 13) Rasmussen poll, for instance, independents disapproved strongly of Obama’s policies by a 49% to 21% margin.
What does all of this mean for California and the Central Coast? On the surface, it means that what happened in New Jersey, a state as reliably democratic as California, could happen here as well. There, a 15% victory margin for Obama in 2008 was transformed into a 6% margin for the republican gubernatorial candidate just a year later; a remarkable swing of 21% in voter preference. A similar swing in California, were it to occur, would make virtually all important races in 2010 competitive, something they had not been in a long time.
While this is certainly possible, there is no guarantee that the California GOP would necessarily be the beneficiary of such a turn of events. For the backlash we’re observing is a popular reaction to the sharp left turn of the Obama Administration and its allies in Congress and does not necessarily mean an endorsement of republican policies. Indeed, much of the discontent driving this backlash, as exemplified, for instance, by the tea party movement, is nearly as unhappy with the GOP establishment as it is with the Left. This, of course, means that unless the republicans are able to allay legitimate concerns, embrace the fundamental values that resonate with this political groundswell and harness it to common goals, the GOP can miss a unique opportunity to revive its electoral fortunes.
Nowhere is this dichotomy more clear cut than in California. The fact is that for the past seven years the California GOP has been led - many would say misled – by a governor and a coterie of GOP sycophants who do not represent basic republican values. The evidence for that is too well established to need much additional elucidation here, but suffice it to say that this “republican” governor presided over a state spending binge greater than that of Gray Davis, kowtowed to the predatory public employees unions, spearheaded the radical environmental agenda of the Left by promoting the global warming scam and signing the economically destructive AB-32 and SB-375 legislation and conspired with the democrats in pushing completely dishonest tax-raising schemes.
It would be nice to believe that the problems of the California GOP are limited to the failures of the governor - an erstwhile tough-talking ‘terminator’ turned a vainglorious girlyman – but unfortunately this is far from being the case. The fact is that Schwarzenegger would not have been able to do as much damage to the state and the party as he did without the help of many in the GOP leadership. It is worth remembering that only a year and a half ago, as Schwarzenegger proclaimed his party dying at the box office and urged it to move to the left, the GOP chairman declared him to be the “single greatest asset” of the party. And move to the left at least some in the legislature did, making it possible for the governor and the democrats to pass a bogus budget full of disingenuous gimmicks and tax increases.
The same malaise afflicting the GOP in Sacramento is much in evidence on the Central Coast as well. Exhibit number one is Senator Abel Maldonado, a Schwarzenegger sycophant and legislative turncoat extraordinaire, who has long abandoned whatever republican principles he may have once had. Not surprisingly, his betrayal of republican values has been duly rewarded by the governor with an appointment to the vice-governorship. An even more telling example is the passing in San Luis Obispo county a disastrous ‘smart growth’ ordinance that assures the full control of land use policies by a bunch of unelected environmental extremists, aka central planners, to the huge detriment of private property rights and the economic well-being of the county. At the key Board of Supervisors meeting discussing the adoption of smart growth principles, the three members of the “conservative” majority on the board at the time voted unanimously with the two leftists to adopt the measure. Two of these individuals are now seeking higher office on the republican ticket.
The California GOP is thus finding itself at a historic crossroads. It should begin with some soul searching and admit that the Schwarzenegger tenure in office has been an unmitigated disaster for the state and for the party and seek to distance itself from his dismal legacy now rather than a year from now. Beyond that, it will have to decide whether it wants to rededicate itself to upholding its basic values in defense of freedom, individual rights, free markets and limited government or continue its wishy-washy ways led by opportunistic politicians who stand for nothing more than their own selfish interests. If the former comes to pass, the party has an excellent chance to join and steer the powerful grassroots rebellion afoot in America toward remaking the state and the country as the Reagan revolution did thirty years ago; if the latter, it is not clear that the California GOP has much of a future.
Going back to first principles does not and should not at all mean requiring litmus test loyalty by candidates and diverse views, especially on contentious cultural issues, should be welcomed. But compromise on the central political values that distinguish the GOP from the corrupt leftwing bazaar that is today’s democratic party at a time when the American people see their fundamental freedoms under assault and are fighting back is political suicide.
Alex Alexiev, a veteran national security analyst, is currently a visiting fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C. He served nearly 20 years as a senior analyst with the national security division of the Rand Corporation. Alexiev directed numerous research projects for the Department of Defense and other agencies. He is the author of several books and myriad articles on national security issues. His present research focuses on issues related to Islamic extremism and terrorism. He is a resident of San Luis Obispo county and a member of the board of directors of the Coalition of Labor, Agriculture and Business of San Luis Obispo (COLABSLO).
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